Today's paper
http://www.kentucky.com/181/story/516665.htmlThe article is open for comments (you have to register - it's free - my comment is the second - only a few responses to my comment - both inane in their simplicity - the horses go on to race....blah blah blah - HA! is what I say.....doubtful that they all do - and we know what happens to them - one claiming race after another...and then what? Total avoidance of the real issue!
so post your comments ladies!
Keeneland sale has record number of horses
By Alicia Wincze
awincze@herald-leader.comCharles Bertram | Staff
With the 2008 Keeneland September sales starting late Monday morning, an exercise rider worked a thoroughbred on the training track in the pre-dawn hours at the Keeneland Race Course located on Versailles Road. Photo by Charles Bertram | Staff
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This time last season, with a struggling economy and softening marketplace hovering over them, consignors and sales officials braced themselves for some rough going at the Keeneland September yearling sale, only to see the marquee auction show a startling amount of resiliency.
On the eve of the 2008 Keeneland September auction, the same caution and concern resonated throughout the sales grounds. But this time, the signs are less favorable that the world's largest yearling auction can reverse the odds again.
There is no more basic economic concept than supply and demand, and for the next 15 days, the Keeneland September sale is going to test the limits of that principle as it has cataloged a record 5,555 horses at a time when the Thoroughbred marketplace is suffering through major corrections.
The September sale, which starts Monday, runs through Sept. 23 with one off day, Friday.
Last year, after struggling through the first two sessions, the September auction surged when middle market strength carried it to its second-highest gross in history, with receipts totaling more than $385 million.
The opposite could be the case this year. While the top end of the market has proved solid in 2008, players in the lower middle end — those most affected by the current economic hardships — have pulled back, resulting in an increasingly polarizing mind-set among buyers.
"There never have been (enough buyers) before, so why would there be this year?" said Craig Bandoroff of Denali Stud. "If you have a really good horse you'll do all right, but if you don't you probably better figure out what Plan B is."
Boutique auctions like the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select sale that put heavy emphasis on pedigree and conformation have been able to post some admirable results. But the adverse effects of overproduction have been felt at other yearling sales this season.
Across-the-board declines occurred at both the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July sale and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. August yearling sale, with the rate of horses not sold soaring well above 30 percent.
"We have really too many horses running into a slowing economy," said Case Clay, president of Three Chimneys Farm. "It seems like the players are here to play, but how much they're willing to spend no one will know until it happens."
Added Bayne Welker, sales director of Mill Ridge Farm: "We've produced a lot of horses and good physicals will continue to sell well, but it's going to get tougher out there. You take (France's) Deauville (August yearling sale) out of the mix and we've seen declines everywhere."
International buyers have been the saviors of many auctions in recent years, but the increased strength of the dollar of late could put a dent in that action.
Still, if international buyers spend enough the first week, some consignors think there might be enough money for week two when the going will be especially rough.
"(International buyers) are definitely going to be active the first three books, but after that we'll see how much of an impact they'll have," said Andrew Cary, director of sales for Hill 'n' Dale Sales Agency. "If they buy a lot in the first two books then it kind of has a carryover to the middle books where American buyers who might be shut out in the first two books will have more money to spend later on."
Last year's sale saw Demi O'Byrne, agent for Coolmore Stud principal John Magnier, purchase 13 horses for $17,920,000 — including the $3.7 million sale-topping colt by Unbridled's Song — to lead all buyers.
As usual, one can expect Coolmore to battle with its rival, Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, for the best bloodstock offerings.
Beyond that, however, much of the 2008 Keeneland September sale is clouded in uncertainty.
"I was proved wrong last year. I thought after Book 4, the sale would drop off and it stayed strong throughout," Clay said. "Hopefully I'm wrong again. But I think it's one big question mark."
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